Each year, EBSCO releases its Serials Price Projections. This report, based on surveys of a wide range of publishers and reviews of historical serials pricing data, provides serials price projections that will assist information professionals as they make budgeting decisions for the upcoming renewal season.
2013 Price Projections
EBSCO anticipates the overall effective publisher price increases for academic and academic/medical libraries for 2013 (before currency impact) to be in the range of 5 to 7 percent.
Market Dynamics
Within the academic library and academic publishing markets, this past year in many ways represented the continuation of trends previously addressed by EBSCO in previous Serials Price Projection reports. Expected trends for the 2013 subscription year:
- Library budgets will continue to be under pressure
- Large publishers will continue to aggressively push the Big Deal, while smaller publishers will work hard to maintain their share of the remaining funds
- Packaged content remains preferred over individual subscriptions, but the share of budget demanded by packages plus annual price increases will result in modest acceleration of package cancellations
Emerging Trends
The open access (OA) movement appears to be gaining momentum. While the concept of OA publishing has been in the market for the past decade, the model has gained traction in recent years due to a confluence of factors, including improvements in technology and digital publishing; governmental and funding policies regarding the broadest possible access to scientific research; and the budget crisis within academic libraries for subscription content. Evidence that OA has gained a significant foothold in the market:
- Approximately 8 percent of all articles published in peer-reviewed journals in 2009 were OA, and the number is growing
- Almost all of the top science, technology, and medical (STM) publishers now offer an OA platform or an OA option within certain subscription journals
Budget Factors
Most library budgets are not expected to rise by the same annual percentage as publisher price increases. As a result, the following trends are likely:
- Librarians will continue to prune their content purchases
- Content-purchasing evaluations will increasingly be based on usage analytics
- Librarians will increase exploration and testing of alternative purchasing methods, such as patron-driven-acquisition and content lease and/or rental
To read EBSCO’s 2013 Serials Price Projection Report in its entirety, visit www.ebsco.com.
*While based upon careful analysis, EBSCO recommends caution when using these projections, as they rely on historical trends and current estimates.
